2026: The Year of the Leap Frog

I've spent countless hours in Q4 of 2025 with brilliant economists, scaling experts, exit strategists, and wise old, battle-seasoned operators who’ve survived these tumultuous seas before.

I've been poring over the business topology for 2026, and I can summon it up in two words. Cautiously optimistic.

But don’t expect to get out of it without being bloodied. 2026 is going to be a vicious knife fight in the fog. The fog of AI platform updates, search algorithm changes, PPC price hikes, and oppressive economics. Most everyone is already swinging blindly...except the wise. Already, there are many bodies who never made it out of 2025 alive. 

Consumers are uncertain, and they are relying on us to give them certainty. Certainty that we're not going to try to sell them the farm. That we have their best interest at heart. That we can make that old clunker of equipment last a bit longer to see us through this fog.

Obligations are high. High mortgages, gas, and food prices aren't going away. People are putting their groceries on ‘4 convenient monthly payments.’ Tariffs are holding prices at all-time highs. Gold has never been so expensive, cresting $4000 an ounce for the first time in history.

We may not be in a traditional recession, but make no mistake. We are in a TRUST RESESSION.

And do you know who wins in a trust recession? You guessed it!

Those worthy of trust.

Think about the signals you're casting off. Do you have an aura of greed, ulterior motives, and creepy PE vibes?

The most trusted are the ones who will gain impressive market share, yet it won't feel as satisfying as you'd hope. Topline revenues will likely hold steady for the hardworking, honest types. You'll do more small jobs. Your average ticket will be up because of prices, but down because of lower replacement units.

But you'll be winning over the hearts and minds of your market in spades. You were there for them in their tough times. They'll appreciate you for that.

In 2026, people will NOT be looking for the best solution. They will be looking for something slightly less shitty than what they have right now. A repair, not a replacement. A restoration, at half the price of a new mid-priced system. A good enough piece of equipment. Low-level maintenance. None of the fancy stuff. Repairs will shift to their buddy Earl before it'll come to you. You'll fix what Earl muffs up.

Your closing ratio will rise, but your call volume will drop. Get serious bout your sales training, and have closing ARCs ready to go. High pressure won’t work, but polite persistence will. 

It's up to you to earn their willingness to even pick up the phone every day. Even the ones you've served before. When things get tough, people pull back to the fortress and protect the valuables. It’s been that way since the start of time. You get your piece of the rations when you earn your keep. 

That's a trust recession.

So be trustworthy. Exude empathy, then competence. Be convenient. Be abundant and reassuring. Be the company your mom would be proud of.

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2026 won't be sexy. It'll be sweaty. It'll require a lot of outbound calling. It'll be a lot of smaller tickets.

1. Protect your brand repetition to the masses.
2. Lean heavily into brand messaging about efficient operations and fast, fix-it-first repairs and Michelin Star service at Applebee's prices.
3. Stay curious, generous, and optimistic. People are looking for the Leaders to show themselves. Appear to be their leader, and they will follow.
4. Embrace the experiment. With so many unknowns, we are back on the digital frontier, cutting a path to potential.
5. Don't get precious about toplines. Get obsessed with efficiencies to drive the bottom line without sacrificing delightful service. Revenue is vanity. Profit is sanity. ‍
6. Be a gentleman, not a creep. Leave that to the finance bros and spreadsheet weasels. Love the one you're with. Take them all, big and small. Get intentional about building average tickets slowly and carefully. The era of the one-night stand is over. It's time to settle down and start courting again.
7. Don't start getting ready. BE READY. Train, train, train. From CSRs to Sales. Heck, even those AIs you have answering your phones. From mindset to motivation. Competence breeds confidence. Have your team ready to act like a SWAT team, not just in sales, but in problem-solving, adaptability, creativity, and enthusiasm. 

‍Luck favors the prepared. Luck favors the bold. 

While more people obsess about trying to hit the public (and AI Search) with low-quality quantity, you hit the masses with the soothing words that make them feel right about you. You're GOING TO WIN. You did this year, and you'll do it again in 2026. And you'll look back as one of the proudest years of your life. 

Tiring. Frustrating at times. Stressful too. I know you have a lot of obligations to provide for the people in your care. I respect the hell out of you for that. 

Just remember, you can't go on an adventure without facing trouble. 

Let's get this!

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A friend. A client. A brilliant mind. Shawna Devlin of Mo Better Garage calls it the Midterm Miracle. A Marketing Maven in her own right, Shawna has a lot of optimism for the latter half of 2026. Amid significant pressure to win the Midterm elections, her keen eye sees an economic reprieve in the trailing half of 2026. I like the way you think, Shawna. 

In 2025, we saw the average operator spend 12% on marketing. New Jersey, California, and New York topped the list with sky-high marketing costs. Meta and Google each nearly touched a 200% price increase that not even the most elite digital marketer could avoid. 

Nobody knows what Google and Meta will do in 2026. We have seen aggressive moves by YouTube in late 2025, and we expect Google to level the playing field in its favor in 2026. OpenAI and a handful of up-and-coming AI companies are all vying for a new grab at the AI advertising gold rush. 

Reddit and YouTube are currently the most frequently cited platforms for AI LLMs. Tomorrow? Nobody knows. 

As for trust, well, that requires words. Stories. Feelings. If you invested in a truck wrap, well, that’s not going to help you this year. If you invested in telling the world who you are and why they should care, you’re already in a better position than basically all of your competitors to dominate the shrinking market share available in 2026. 

If you don’t have a strong selling system, don’t delay. In a drought, you need to make every customer count. Handling resistance. Building the sale. Nurturing the relationship. These all matter more when there are fewer people to talk to. Every customer is like the pretty girl visiting an all-boys school. They are going to get a lot of attention. 

2026 is the year of the bottom line. Don’t let inefficiencies eat away at profitability, but don’t get rid of the inefficiencies that optimize profitability. Sales training and powerful brand messaging are your saviors. Guarantees with real consequences will show the world who you are when it hurts. And monthly finance payments will make the pain tolerable. 

You’re going to make your own economy in 2026. Lean into the trust signals and feel right. Familiarity. Calm abundance. Graciousness and kindness when nobody is looking. Standing for something. 

Build simple-to-follow systems and get them 70% right and 100% fast. It’s a mantra my friend at Call Dad, Matt Pozda, lives by, and it has served him well. 

There are a lot of shiny objects out there right now in marketing. A tsunami of media channel options promising you the perfect customer served up on a silver platter. AI promises lightspeed efficiency for covering any and every possible keyword a human could ever hope to search for.  

And seemingly delusional old people (like me) are insisting that people still listen to the radio and watch television (the data would break your brain). 

Then there’s what you say. Some scream out loud about your call to action. Others insist that you need to share your story with the world. Everyone wants your money, and it feels like you pay everyone else more than you ever receive.

You're left wondering,

‍“Where in the world do I spend my money?”

I believe that marketing researchers are pretty astute folks with a whole bunch of helpful data. I also believe Operators who have to deal with the realities of life on the frontlines. I’ve sat in the chair, making the decisions on what to cut to ensure payroll was covered. 

I understand how stressful it is to make the best decision about where to invest your money to achieve the best results from your marketing investment. 

Early on, when all you have available to spend is smaller than the impact you need to make, you have to add your Guerrilla Marketing resourcefulness into the pool to offset the lack of cash to make things happen. 

Here’s the thing. Brand awareness is what keeps you in the game. If they don’t know you exist, you’re just dumping your money onto a roulette table at Casino Google. With the steeply rising costs of PPC, this is a surefire way to make Google rich. 

Top of mind has always, and will continue to always be exponentially superior to top of search. Choose which game you’re trying to win. You only have so many resources.  

It has been clearly proven that 80% of marketing’s long-term ROI¹ comes from brand messaging, not performance-based marketing tactics. Auditory brand messaging, supported by related visual brand elements, builds memory, preference, and trust. 

It is scientifically impossible for PPC to do this as a function of brain chemistry.

It has also been well documented² that brands that advertise through recessionary periods (including trust recessions) grow more, both in revenue and market share.

Here’s what really hurts, and this means you folks in the back who are still sitting on the brand messaging sidelines. Cutting brand spend costs you more in the long run³. For every $1 you cut from the brand today, you’ll need to spend $1.85 to recover lost ground.

Thinking of going dark? It’ll hurt. In year one, the average sales decline is 16%. By year three, the data shows us a 36% sales crater⁴. Ouch! Not to mention when you cut (or don’t play for real) you’re just handing over your market share and revenue to your competition. 

Imagine your competitor doubling down on brand while you retreat? Expect to lose at least 15% market share⁵. 

What most competitors have failed to realize is how much solid branding builds pricing power. When 94% of pricing power comes from being meaningfully different, to opt out is to give up profits as well⁶. A 1% price increase will drive more profit than volume growth or cost cuts⁷. 

When making the case for how to show up in a trust recession, how can I avoid mentioning CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost)? Familiar brands convert better and click cheaper. 

Our data at Wizard of Ads® shows that branded keywords and brandable chunks come in at a whopping 10X less than unbranded keywords. These clicks have a significantly higher conversion rate and capture an 85X ROI. A strong brand message will make an ad budget go 11X further than a performance-centric strategy⁸. 

In Essential Home Services, your brand is the beacon of trust. In a trust recession, you want to be the shining light when all else feels hopeless. Brand messaging is as essential as the services you provide. Don’t let it slide. 

Be the leapfrog. 

TL;DR 2026: The Year of the Leap Frog

• 2026 isn’t a recession. It’s a trust recession. Consumers are anxious, overextended, and skeptical. They’ll choose companies they trust, not the flashiest or cheapest.
• Winners will feel boring, but win big. Expect fewer calls, smaller jobs, more repairs over replacements, higher close rates, and slower topline growth. Profit comes from efficiency, not volume.
• Trust beats tactics. Empathy, honesty, fix-it-first service, fair pricing, and real guarantees will outperform aggressive sales and “finance-bro” vibes.
• Brand > performance marketing. Top-of-mind awareness matters more than top-of-search. Cutting brand spend during a downturn destroys long-term revenue and market share.
• PPC is getting pricier and less reliable. Rising ad costs, AI-driven platform shifts, and algorithm chaos mean unbranded clicks are expensive and risky.
• Strong brands lower CAC and raise pricing power. Familiar brands convert better, click cheaper, retain customers longer, and can raise prices without losing trust.
• Train relentlessly. Sales, CSRs, operations, and even AI systems must be sharp. Polite persistence wins; pressure loses.
• Do more with less. Obsess over operational efficiency, protect margins, and don’t worship topline revenue.
• Marketing message matters more than channel. Words, stories, and emotional reassurance build trust—truck wraps and gimmicks won’t.
• Stay visible during the fog. Going dark costs market share and future recovery dollars.
• 2026 rewards leaders. Be calm, competent, generous, and consistent. Show up as the trusted guide, and customers will follow.

Bottom line:

2026 will be gritty, not glamorous. The companies that lead with trust, invest in brand, train hard, and operate efficiently will leapfrog competitors. You’ll look back on 2026 as one of your proudest years in business.

Sources:

1. WARC – Advertising in a Downturn
2. Analytic Partners – ROI Genome
3. Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
4. Ehrenberg-Bass Institute
5. Analytic Partners
6. Kantar – BrandZ Differentiation Study
7. WARC – Profit Partners
8. WARC – Left-Brain vs. Right-Brain Marketing